Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill": Potential Boon for SpaceX, xAI, but Tesla Faces Setback? Elon Musk's outspoken criticism of the GOP's federal spending bill highlights potential impacts on his diverse business portfolio. While SpaceX and xAI could benefit from increased government spending, Tesla's EV tax credits face significant jeopardy under the proposed changes. The bill's impact on Musk's companies underscores the complex interplay between federal policy and private enterprise
Despite potential Tesla setbacks from the "Big Beautiful Bill," Elon Musk's xAI could see significant gains. The bill's impact on Musk's companies is mixed, with federal spending potentially benefiting his AI and SpaceX ventures
Elon Musk's Businesses Face Uncertain Future with GOP Spending Bill: Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI Impacts Explained. The proposed bill's impact on federal subsidies, contracts, and regulations could significantly affect Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, with potential losses for some and gains for others. This analysis explores the bill's implications for Musk's diverse portfolio of companies
Elon Musk intensifies criticism of Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," warning of potential Tesla losses. The billionaire CEO's outspoken disapproval escalates, impacting Tesla while potentially benefiting SpaceX and xAI. Musk's latest comments follow his recent departure from the White House and highlight the complex relationship between his businesses and the proposed federal spending legislation
Elon Musk slams Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" as a "disgusting abomination," voicing strong opposition to the massive Congressional spending plan on X. The bill, impacting Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI differently, faces sharp criticism from Musk despite his ongoing relationship with President Trump. Musk's condemnation follows the recent conclusion of his White House role and highlights potential negative consequences for Tesla due to proposed changes to EV tax credits
Elon Musk slams GOP's "Big Beautiful Bill," calling out Republican lawmakers for supporting the controversial legislation. The Tesla CEO's scathing criticism targets the bill's potential negative impact on Tesla, while suggesting benefits for SpaceX and xAI. Musk's outspoken disapproval follows his recent departure from his White House role, highlighting the complexities of his relationship with President Trump despite their differing views on this significant spending bill
Elon Musk slams Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," threatening Tesla but potentially boosting SpaceX and xAI. Days after leaving his White House advisory role (unofficial head of the DOGE office), Musk unleashed scathing criticism of the GOP spending bill, clashing with Trump despite recent public assurances of their continued friendship. The bill's impact on Musk's businesses is mixed, with potential losses for Tesla offset by potential gains for his other ventures. The White House responded, stating Trump remains unmoved by Musk's criticism
Trump Unfazed by Musk's "Disgusting Abomination" Spending Bill Criticism: White House Responds. Despite Elon Musk's harsh criticism of the GOP's "Big Beautiful Bill," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed President Trump's stance remains unchanged. The bill, impacting Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, includes controversial provisions like Medicaid cuts and tax changes
Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill": Medicaid Cuts, Tax Extenders, and the Impact on Tesla & SpaceX. This controversial GOP spending bill extends 2017 tax cuts, slashes Medicaid funding, and eliminates taxes on tips and overtime. The legislation's potential effects on Elon Musk's businesses, including Tesla and SpaceX, are mixed, sparking strong criticism from the CEO
Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill": A Mixed Bag for Elon Musk's Companies? While Tesla faces potential losses from proposed EV tax credit changes, SpaceX and xAI could gain from increased federal spending. The bill's impact on Musk's diverse business empire highlights the complexities of navigating government policy
Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" significantly alters Biden's electric vehicle (EV) tax credits, potentially jeopardizing Tesla's incentives. The bill phases out the $7,500 new EV and $4,000 used EV tax credits, impacting consumer access to affordable electric vehicles
Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" could eliminate Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) tax credits. The bill caps EV tax credit eligibility at 200,000 vehicles sold between 2009 and 2025. With Tesla's Q1 2025 deliveries exceeding 336,000 EVs, this provision poses a significant threat to the company
Elon Musk criticizes the "Big Beautiful Bill," fearing its impact on Tesla's EV tax credits. While Musk acknowledges potential short-term losses for Tesla due to proposed EV tax credit eliminations, he suggests long-term benefits for the automaker. Tesla has yet to officially comment on the bill's potential effects
Musk's criticism of the "Big Beautiful Bill" isn't universally shared; many remain unconvinced by his arguments
Tesla Stock Alert: Morningstar strategist Seth Goldstein warns that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" could severely impact Tesla due to its proposed changes to EV tax credits. This significant alteration to the electric vehicle incentive program is a major concern for the automaker's future
“Consumers have increased long-range EV choices at similar price points as Tesla,” Goldstein said. “It’s on Tesla to make the case for consumers to even slightly pay up today versus some other EVs.”
Goldstein said that tax credit elimination could lead to a decrease in sales volume, which the automaker has already been struggling with.
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman wrote in an investor note that Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” combined with other proposed legislation, including ending the California Air Resources Board Program, threatens over half of Tesla’s 2025 profits.
Brinkman wrote in the note that the $7,500 consumer tax made up 19% of Tesla’s 2024 earnings before interest and tax, and could result in a potential $1.2 billion headwind. He added that the automaker could face a $2 billion headwind from the removal of CARB ZEV credit sales, which encourage the sales of zero-emission vehicles.
Tesla is betting big on AI and robotics as it pushes to reach full autonomy, in part through its upcoming robotaxi service, efforts that Musk has said are key to growing the company’s valuation. However, Brinkman said that any material benefit from Tesla’s autonomous robotaxi business is years away, while the headwind from EV subsidy removal would likely hit the automaker in 2025 and 2026.
“We expect estimates to come down as the impact of Trump Administration EV subsidy removal becomes clearer,” Brinkman wrote.
Goldstein said that the removal of the tax credit could “accelerate” Tesla’s transition to an AI and robotics company.
It’s also possible that the expiration of the EV tax credit on Tesla vehicles could spur some short-term demand from buyers looking to purchase one of the company’s EVs before the window closes.
Trump’s spending bill wouldn’t only change existing taxes and fees. Under its current language, it would also impose a $250 yearly fee for EV drivers through the Federal Highway Administration, and a $100 yearly fee for hybrid vehicles.
As written, the bill also scraps a loan program that Tesla utilized in 2010, long before Trump even entered the political scene.
The spending bill also threatens Tesla’s energy business, which Musk has said is “growing like wildfire,” by ending energy tax credits. The automaker’s energy generation and storage business, which includes Tesla’s Megapack and Powerwall battery systems, brought in $2.73 billion in the first quarter of 2025, a 67% increase from the year prior.
Musk shared a post on X from the official Tesla Energy account that said, “abruptly ending the energy tax credits would threaten America’s energy independence and the reliability of our grid.”
Tesla Energy also added that it urges the Senate to enact legislation with a “sensible wind down” to continue speedy deployment that supports AI and domestic manufacturing.
“This bill would hurt Tesla around the energy tax credits going away,” Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst and a noted Tesla bull, told BI.
Trump’s spending bill, if signed into law, may also help his AI company, xAI.
One section of the bill prohibits states and local governments from regulating AI for the next decade in an effort to remove legal barriers related to deploying and adopting AI.
That could allow Musk to develop and advance xAI with less red tape on the regulatory side to slow the company down.
The bill also allocated funds toward modernizing the federal IT system with AI and improving the cybersecurity of its systems. With the government setting money aside to improve its systems, xAI, one of the companies at the forefront of the AI race, could be contracted to power the modernization efforts.
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