US Labor Market Weakness: Beyond the Headlines & Trump's Firing
The recent jobs report reveals troubling signs of a weakening US labor market, extending beyond the headline figures that led to the dismissal of the government statistician. A slowdown in hiring, rising unemployment, and a surge in long-term joblessness paint a concerning picture of economic softening. The increase in individuals unemployed for six months or more is at its highest point since 2021, raising concerns about the impact of economic policy uncertainty and tariffs on job recovery. Experts link this persistent joblessness to challenges faced by long-term unemployed individuals in a shifting economic landscape
July Jobs Report Reveals Economic Slowdown: Hiring Slump, Unemployment Rise, and Increased Long-Term Joblessness. The latest employment data shows a weakening labor market, with slower hiring, a rise in the national unemployment rate, and a significant increase in long-term unemployment—reaching levels not seen since the recovery from the pandemic. This signals a potential economic softening
Long-term unemployment surges: July sees 1.8 million jobless for six months or more, a 24% increase and the highest since February 2022. This marks the most people experiencing prolonged joblessness since late 2021, signaling a softening economy and potential challenges for re-employment amid economic uncertainty
Rising Long-Term Unemployment: Experts Link Increased Joblessness to Trump-Era Tariffs. Labor economist Valerie Wilson of the Economic Policy Institute attributes the recent uptick in long-term unemployment to employers' increased hiring selectivity amidst the economic uncertainty created by President Trump's tariffs. This increase in individuals unemployed for six months or more signals a softening economy and challenges for re-entry into the workforce
Rising Long-Term Unemployment: Experts Link Job Market Slowdown to Economic Uncertainty. A recent increase in long-term unemployment, with 1.8 million Americans jobless for six months or more, reflects challenges for job seekers and employer hesitancy amid economic policy uncertainty. Economists suggest that softening economic conditions and unpredictable policy are hindering re-employment efforts, particularly for those facing prolonged unemployment
Trump's tariffs: A $1,219 annual tax hike on American families? A new estimate from the Tax Foundation reveals the potential cost of the president's trade policies, although these tariffs are frequently revised
Long-term unemployment: A lingering scar from the Great Recession, impacting older workers disproportionately. Employers' preference for applicants with unbroken work histories created a self-perpetuating cycle of joblessness, hindering recovery even years after the official 2009 end date
Long-term unemployment impacting you? Share your story with HuffPost! Email arthur@huffpost.com. Include your phone number for interview consideration
Is a Recession Looming? Despite low unemployment (4.2% in July), job growth has significantly slowed, raising recession fears. Recent BLS data reveals the weakest three months for job growth since the pandemic, prompting President Trump to fire the BLS commissioner, alleging—without evidence—data manipulation. A rise in long-term unemployment further fuels concerns about economic softening
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The labor force shrank slightly in July, helping hold down the unemployment rate even as the number of employed workers declined. Wilson noted the unemployment rate for Black Americans rose to 7.2%, up from a recent historical low of 4.8% in April 2023.
“Over the last two months, we’re seeing the black unemployment rate pick up, which is another one that as that starts to rise, we start to look for signals of a broader slowing in the economy,” Wilson said.
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